Business risk and simulation modelling in practice

This book aims to be a practical guide to help business risk managers, modelling analysts and general management to understand, conduct and use quantitative risk assessment and uncertainty modelling in their own situations. It is intended to provide a solid foundation in the most relevant aspects of quantitative modelling and the associated statistical concepts in a way that is accessible, intuitive, pragmatic and applicable to general business and corporate contexts. It also discusses the interfaces between quantitative risk modelling activities and the organisational context within which such activities take place. In particular, it covers links with general risk assessment processes and issues relating to organisational cultures, incentives and change management. Some knowledge of these issues is generally important in order to ensure the success of quantitative risk assessment approaches in practical organisational contexts. The text is structured into three parts (containing 13 chapters in total):  Part I provides an introduction to the topic of risk assessment in general terms.  Part II covers the design and use of quantitative risk models.  Part III provides an introduction to key ways to implement the repeated calculation steps that are required when conducting simulation, covering the use of VBA macros and that of the @RISK add-in.